A Rare Event in Somalia

Tropical Cyclone 3A, courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

At the beginning of the week of November 10th, on the heels of typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Somalia was hit by one of the biggest storms ever to strike there as well. Tropical Cyclone 3A came ashore and created flash floods that killed at least 100 people, destroyed homes, and killed thousands of livestock. At its strongest point, this storm had wind speeds of only about 46 miles per hour, which would be equivalent to a weak tropical storm. The main hazard became the rain, as the forecast called for 4-8 inches in an area that usually only sees about 4-8 inches of rain PER YEAR. These kinds of storms are pretty rare in this area, as 3A became just the fifth cyclone to strike the area since 1966. The last one occurred almost exactly a year earlier, in October of 2012.

This is a tough situation for the people of Somalia. For an area that hardly gets any rain all year long to be hit with up to 8 inches in 2 days is incredible. How could you prepare for and expect that? It did happen about a year ago as well, but I am unsure of how bad that one was and I don't remember hearing about it. I guess one might say that in order to prevent the death and destruction from happening again, the people in this area need to be aware that it CAN happen, and that weather events seem to be occurring at a stronger magnitude world wide. This situation gets at the frequency vs magnitude part of risk management. Although the frequency of storms like this has been historically very low, when they do occur they cause a lot of problems. This one was the worst ever in this area. One might consider a little bit of planning and education of the population for the next time it does happen, so that hopefully, death and damage could be lessened somewhat. I don't see an area like this needing a massive plan and overhaul in regards to storms because the frequency IS so low, but it would be a good idea to start recognizing that when they do happen they can be very destructive despite low wind speeds.

 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82377

Typhoon Haiyan (class discussion follow-up)

On November 14th, my Environmental Hazards class met and had special group discussions about Typhoon Haiyan. This was such a major storm that occurred while I was taking this class that it deserved another look, and most definitely deserved a class period devoted to it.

The first thing we were asked to do was describe the storm from a behavioral paradigm based view. Haiyan was a well-defined storm with wind speeds well over 200 mph when it made landfall. It certainly acted like a well-defined storm. The first batch of winds came from one direction which weakened structures and spread debris. Then the eye came ashore and there was a calmer period, before another sudden burst of winds from the opposite direction along with the storm surge. This storm did deviate slightly from the projected path, possibly leaving some people unprepared to deal with it. It was also the largest storm of its kind to ever strike the area. The Philippines is used to typhoons, but not ones of this magnitude.

We were then asked to pick out a couple of major cities that were impacted by the storm. We chose Manilla and Tacloban, as they were hit hard and are receiving most of the media attention.

Next, we used the "swiss cheese" model to describe how a typhoon hazard turned into a major disaster. The main area impacted is an island nation with not a lot of easily accessible evacuation routes. Some news reports say that local officials did not relay the hazard rating of the storm to the local population, and that locals also did not understand storm surges because they only perform disaster drills related to tsunamis. The bulk of the population of this area resides along the coast, and many evacuation areas were only 1/2 mile inland to buildings that were eventually damaged by the storm surge and high winds. But the population couldn't necessarily just move further inland. Hilly areas prevented this because of the possibility of landslides. The Philippines is also a developing country, meaning that the loss of property and human life greatly impacts them, unlike in a developed country that would be more ready to deal with the aftermath.

Finally, we were asked to relate this storm to future storms from a contextual view. Experts may be divided on the overall impacts of global warming, but sea levels are rising. The frequency of storms is NOT necessarily increasing, but the frequency of higher magnitude storms is. The geography of the Philippines as an island nation makes them especially vulnerable to these factors. The area already is hit with a fairly good amount of typhoons, and if they continue to increase in magnitude, we could see many more disasters like this occurring there, as well as other places with similar geography.

Philippines Typhoon

Super Typhoon Haiyan as it surges across the Philippines. Courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

Over the past weekend, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded struck the central Philippines, killing at least 10,000 people (the current estimate) and destroying 70-80% of all structures in its path. Typhoon Haiyan hit land last Friday as a category 5 typhoon, and has displaced at least 480,000 people and affected over four million across 36 provinces in one way or another. The bulk of the deaths are currently believed to have been caused by surging sea waters in a tsunami-like fashion, which leveled houses and drowned anyone in the way. The winds associated with this storm were also a big factor, being estimated at about 235 miles per hour. The relief efforts have been strained to say the least, after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck central Bohol province last month, displacing many people, as well as a current conflict with Muslim rebels in Zamboanga province. On top of that, the chairman of the Red Cross in the Philippines says that mobs have been attacking trucks loaded with food, water, and tents in Leyte, that were inbound to help locals. President Aquino has deployed about 300 soldiers to try and restore order in the area and is considering martial law or a state of emergency to ensure security.

This is pretty much a worst-case scenario right now in the Philippines. Not only do we have one of the worst storms ever seen, but it struck in an area where population density is fairly high and buildings are constructed fairly weakly. That was recipe for disaster on its own. But on top of it, there are other factors at play in the region, including another disaster that happened a month ago, which were already draining their resources. You could argue for better preparedness as a way to prevent this mess, but how can one fairly assume that one area would be struck by two major events in a month's span? The big issue here is building construction, and maybe the warning system. Why were so many people still around when the waves came ashore? This is a high-risk region when it comes to typhoons and earthquakes, but this storm was much larger than any that came before it. Perhaps some people were just used to a high frequency of lower magnitude events, and were caught off guard when a rare, extremely high magnitude event finally happened.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-typhoon-philippines-20131110,0,3220526.story