Dangerous Levels of Smog in China

An aerial image of the area affected, courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

Last Friday authorities in Shanghai and other areas of China closed down schools and ceased construction projects due to a major air pollution issue. The dirty air, or smog, is being attributed to a collection of human-based activities like burning coal, car exhaust, and factory pollution, as well as the current natural weather patterns. Shanghai is a coastal city that usually has some breeze so pollution levels can stay fairly mild, but the recent weather has left little wind and the pollutants have built up in dangerous amounts. The World Health Organization has set a safety guideline of 25 micrograms of PM (particulate matter) 2.5 particles per cubic meter, and last Friday afternoon, the air in the city reached an amazing 602.5 micrograms per cubic meter. Greenpeace, an environmental group, is attributing this to slow-moving and low-hanging air masses that carried factory pollution into Shanghai from other provinces to the northeast. The northeastern areas of China such as Beijing, frequently have large smog events, but it is less common for this to spread so for to the south. Combined with the large amounts of pollution a city like Shanghai already produces, you can see how this quickly became a bad situation.

This is a situation where you have a human-based hazard (pollution) interacting with weather to create a worse-than-usual situation for the residents of Shanghai. Shanghai is a big city that creates a lot of pollution on its own, but when you add a weather pattern that is pulling even more from other large cities far away, you get a uniquely bad situation. Pollution is always a potential hazard, especially to ones health, when choosing to live in a large metropolitan area. These extremely large cities in China experience some sort of smog on a fairly frequent basis, but an event like this is rather rare. Beijing and Shanghai are about 750 miles apart, and yet they are closely connected to this event. The weather really made this a worst-case scenario, and there probably isn't a lot you could do to prevent this from happening again without gaining support for widespread reduction in pollution production. China is still very much a developing country with a lot of factories and vehicles. It is unlikely that they would reduce their pollution output much as it would hurt the economy, so for now it seems as though those who chose to live there (and those who have no choice) are stuck living with the daily health hazard known as smog.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82535

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/smog-at-extremely-hazardous-levels-in-shanghai/2013/12/06/07a4a4bc-5e4b-11e3-8d24-31c016b976b2_story.html

Thanksgiving Travel Hampered

A satellite view of the massive winter storm, courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

This past week leading up to Thanksgiving, as many Americans were hitting the road or heading to the airport, a massive early-season winter storm was making its way across the country. Depending on where you were, the storm dumped snow, ice, and/or rain, making travel conditions extremely difficult. According to the report, the storm was expected to bring winter-like weather to about 2.5 million square miles of the country. 

This storm was making big news because of it occurring on a major holiday, but storms like this are actually fairly common this time of year according to Chris Kidd. The warm ocean waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which are still around the 80 degree mark, load up the atmosphere with moisture, while cold air from the Arctic is blowing down from the north. Where the two very different temperatures meet you have "the perfect recipe for a large storm system"

Because of the size of the storm, it was also impacting areas that do not usually see much or any snow annually, like the Southwest and the southern portion of the Plains States. This caused several deadly car accidents in areas where drivers are just not used to, and maybe not prepared for, driving in the snow. This just goes to show that even in normally warm areas, when conditions are right, you can still see a major winter hazard. 

How could this be prevented or lessened? Perhaps people who live in these areas where you can, and do, see at least a little but of snow each year, need to realize how dangerous it is. Most people in these areas probably drive two-wheel-drive vehicles and drive on roads managed by municipalities that do not have plows or road salt. That is a recipe for disaster. I do not envision these states or counties to invest much money in snow plows because it would not be practical for the few times they would be used, so I think a lot of the changes that need to happen fall on the population. Maybe consider driving an all-wheel drive vehicle (a lot of them get comparable gas mileage now) or something that can be switched in and out of four-wheel drive. If all else fails, realize that if it snows, the roads are going to be awful. Just stay off of them. These deaths were preventable, but only if the people involved were willing to wait out the storm.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82443

A Rare Event in Somalia

Tropical Cyclone 3A, courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

At the beginning of the week of November 10th, on the heels of typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Somalia was hit by one of the biggest storms ever to strike there as well. Tropical Cyclone 3A came ashore and created flash floods that killed at least 100 people, destroyed homes, and killed thousands of livestock. At its strongest point, this storm had wind speeds of only about 46 miles per hour, which would be equivalent to a weak tropical storm. The main hazard became the rain, as the forecast called for 4-8 inches in an area that usually only sees about 4-8 inches of rain PER YEAR. These kinds of storms are pretty rare in this area, as 3A became just the fifth cyclone to strike the area since 1966. The last one occurred almost exactly a year earlier, in October of 2012.

This is a tough situation for the people of Somalia. For an area that hardly gets any rain all year long to be hit with up to 8 inches in 2 days is incredible. How could you prepare for and expect that? It did happen about a year ago as well, but I am unsure of how bad that one was and I don't remember hearing about it. I guess one might say that in order to prevent the death and destruction from happening again, the people in this area need to be aware that it CAN happen, and that weather events seem to be occurring at a stronger magnitude world wide. This situation gets at the frequency vs magnitude part of risk management. Although the frequency of storms like this has been historically very low, when they do occur they cause a lot of problems. This one was the worst ever in this area. One might consider a little bit of planning and education of the population for the next time it does happen, so that hopefully, death and damage could be lessened somewhat. I don't see an area like this needing a massive plan and overhaul in regards to storms because the frequency IS so low, but it would be a good idea to start recognizing that when they do happen they can be very destructive despite low wind speeds.

 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=82377

Typhoon Haiyan (class discussion follow-up)

On November 14th, my Environmental Hazards class met and had special group discussions about Typhoon Haiyan. This was such a major storm that occurred while I was taking this class that it deserved another look, and most definitely deserved a class period devoted to it.

The first thing we were asked to do was describe the storm from a behavioral paradigm based view. Haiyan was a well-defined storm with wind speeds well over 200 mph when it made landfall. It certainly acted like a well-defined storm. The first batch of winds came from one direction which weakened structures and spread debris. Then the eye came ashore and there was a calmer period, before another sudden burst of winds from the opposite direction along with the storm surge. This storm did deviate slightly from the projected path, possibly leaving some people unprepared to deal with it. It was also the largest storm of its kind to ever strike the area. The Philippines is used to typhoons, but not ones of this magnitude.

We were then asked to pick out a couple of major cities that were impacted by the storm. We chose Manilla and Tacloban, as they were hit hard and are receiving most of the media attention.

Next, we used the "swiss cheese" model to describe how a typhoon hazard turned into a major disaster. The main area impacted is an island nation with not a lot of easily accessible evacuation routes. Some news reports say that local officials did not relay the hazard rating of the storm to the local population, and that locals also did not understand storm surges because they only perform disaster drills related to tsunamis. The bulk of the population of this area resides along the coast, and many evacuation areas were only 1/2 mile inland to buildings that were eventually damaged by the storm surge and high winds. But the population couldn't necessarily just move further inland. Hilly areas prevented this because of the possibility of landslides. The Philippines is also a developing country, meaning that the loss of property and human life greatly impacts them, unlike in a developed country that would be more ready to deal with the aftermath.

Finally, we were asked to relate this storm to future storms from a contextual view. Experts may be divided on the overall impacts of global warming, but sea levels are rising. The frequency of storms is NOT necessarily increasing, but the frequency of higher magnitude storms is. The geography of the Philippines as an island nation makes them especially vulnerable to these factors. The area already is hit with a fairly good amount of typhoons, and if they continue to increase in magnitude, we could see many more disasters like this occurring there, as well as other places with similar geography.

Philippines Typhoon

Super Typhoon Haiyan as it surges across the Philippines. Courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory

Over the past weekend, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded struck the central Philippines, killing at least 10,000 people (the current estimate) and destroying 70-80% of all structures in its path. Typhoon Haiyan hit land last Friday as a category 5 typhoon, and has displaced at least 480,000 people and affected over four million across 36 provinces in one way or another. The bulk of the deaths are currently believed to have been caused by surging sea waters in a tsunami-like fashion, which leveled houses and drowned anyone in the way. The winds associated with this storm were also a big factor, being estimated at about 235 miles per hour. The relief efforts have been strained to say the least, after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck central Bohol province last month, displacing many people, as well as a current conflict with Muslim rebels in Zamboanga province. On top of that, the chairman of the Red Cross in the Philippines says that mobs have been attacking trucks loaded with food, water, and tents in Leyte, that were inbound to help locals. President Aquino has deployed about 300 soldiers to try and restore order in the area and is considering martial law or a state of emergency to ensure security.

This is pretty much a worst-case scenario right now in the Philippines. Not only do we have one of the worst storms ever seen, but it struck in an area where population density is fairly high and buildings are constructed fairly weakly. That was recipe for disaster on its own. But on top of it, there are other factors at play in the region, including another disaster that happened a month ago, which were already draining their resources. You could argue for better preparedness as a way to prevent this mess, but how can one fairly assume that one area would be struck by two major events in a month's span? The big issue here is building construction, and maybe the warning system. Why were so many people still around when the waves came ashore? This is a high-risk region when it comes to typhoons and earthquakes, but this storm was much larger than any that came before it. Perhaps some people were just used to a high frequency of lower magnitude events, and were caught off guard when a rare, extremely high magnitude event finally happened.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-typhoon-philippines-20131110,0,3220526.story

Earthquake in Taiwan

Courtesy of weather.com

Today the USGS reported a magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred about 95 miles away from Taiwan's capital of Taipei, where buildings reportedly swayed for about ten seconds. The quake was centered in a remote, mountainous area so no major damage or casualties have been reported. Authorities have reported some scattered power outages as well as a few people trapped in elevators in the suburbs of Taipei. Luckily, the newer buildings in Taiwan have been constructed to withstand earthquakes, so in many cases like this, the damage is quite limited in city areas. Earthquakes are a frequently occurring hazard in Taiwan, but many of them are small and don't amount to much. 

There are a couple of things at play here. First, Taiwan is an example of a place where the people are educated enough to realize that they needed reinforced buildings because of where they are located. This preparedness likely saves a lot of lives each year compared to places at the same risk, but without strong building codes. Second, Taiwan is an example of a place where the frequency of earthquakes is high, but the risk of one happening with a very high magnitude is low. The people of this area assume that risk and bank on the fact that although these events are a common occurrence, they are rarely strong enough to do major damage.

http://www.weather.com/news/strong-earthquake-hits-eastern-taiwan-20131031

Flooding in India

Near Hyderabad, residents wade through a flood-damaged road

Over the past weekend flash floods hit the east India states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. At least forty people are dead according to the CNN report. The floods hit quickly and unexpectedly in many areas, and local residents did not have much time to protect their belongings before retreating to safer areas. Thankfully, a recovery effort being headed by the local government is already underway. Along with dry fruits being sent in, a free kitchen has been set up and tickets distributed. The government also plans to provide housing damage assistance. Thirteen different districts were affected in Odisha alone, including Ganjam, where about 85,000 people had to be evacuated from their homes. The continued rain also has some worried about the drainage system, which might be at risk of breaches if the heavy rains continue.

This event shows that even when a natural hazard strikes quickly, a well-prepared government can still provide its citizens the help they need. Obviously the local government here had plans in place to provide food and housing assistance in the event of a disaster, and that is a very important part of hazard management. Many places that face these same dangers live under governments that either do not care, or are not nearly as educated as to what needs to be done, and potentially, educating people in those areas could save many lives in the future.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/26/world/asia/india-floods/